Beyond™ is not paid by, linked to or backing any party or candidate. This guide gathers what the parties, pollsters and Treasury have published so you can compare it in one place, with a link to every source. Nothing here tells you who to vote for, and every party is shown the same way. Anything that is our own working is labelled as Beyond's maths. To check your enrolment or find a voting place, go to vote.nz.
Government debt, 30/06/2026
$186.7b
41% of GDP, net core Crown debt
Interest on it in 2025/26
$9.1b
About $25m a day (Beyond's maths)
Interest by 2030/31
$13.7b
Treasury forecast
Inflation, year to June 2026
4.1%
Unemployment 5.6%
Source: Treasury, Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2026 (29/09/2026). Checked 29/10/2026.
What would it take?
Test a promise against the debt. Move the slider to spend more or save each year from 2026/27 to 2030/31 without changing anything else, and see where debt lands.
Beyond's maths
We start from Treasury's forecast of $229.8b by 30/06/2031 (39.5% of GDP). Each year's extra is borrowed, and the interest on what has built up is borrowed too, at 4.9% a year: the $9.1b of interest paid in 2025/26 divided by the $186.7b of debt. GDP in 2030/31 of about $582b comes from Treasury's own debt figure and its share of GDP. It leaves out any effect the spending has on growth, tax or interest rates, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast.
Treasury's own path already needs the operating balance to swing by $12.6b, from a $8.6b deficit in 2025/26 to a $4b surplus in 2028/29, while each new Budget adds only $2.4b a year of new spending. Any promise bigger than that room needs a saving, a new tax or more borrowing to match.
The world around the election
Trade deals, tariffs and conflicts this year that bear on prices, exports and the Budget. Newest first.
20/10/2026
India trade deal comes into force
New Zealand drops all tariffs on Indian goods; India cuts or removes tariffs covering about 95% of what New Zealand sells it by value, with sheepmeat's 33% tariff gone on day one. A review is due after a year.
29/09/2026
Treasury names the Middle East conflict the main risk
The Pre-election Update says the oil price shock delayed the recovery and that prices staying high for longer could mean higher interest rates and a weaker economy.
Source: Treasury, Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2026 (29/09/2026).
04/05/2026
Singapore deal to keep essential supplies moving
New Zealand and Singapore signed an Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies, meant to keep critical goods flowing between them during a crisis.
Source: Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies (Wikipedia).
27/04/2026
India trade deal signed
Signed in New Delhi after negotiations concluded in December 2025. Parliament passed the law to put it in place in September.
Source: MFAT, timeline of negotiations.
02/03/2026
Strait of Hormuz closed in the Iran war
Petrol here passed $3 a litre and some stations ran dry; the government said the country held about seven weeks of fuel.
Source: The Spinoff, 03/03/2026.
21/02/2026
US Supreme Court strikes down the "Liberation Day" tariffs
The court ruled the President could not set tariffs under IEEPA. The extra US tariff on most New Zealand goods dropped from 15% to a replacement 10%; steel and aluminium tariffs stayed.
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